中国股市6日和7日连续两天大幅上涨恢复了股民的一些信心，也引发紧盯中国股市的外国媒体高度关注。新加坡《联合早报》称，中国证监会4日以来多次发声，支持上市公司并购重组、推动上市公司提升投资价值、打击利用融券交易实施不当套利、从严打击欺诈发行、财务造假、操纵市场恶意做空等行为，并回应股票质押、融资担保等问题。该报认为，中国政府的“救市”范围明显扩大，对打击操纵市场的行为也不再停留于喊口号，明显缓解了市场恐慌。《华尔街日报》引述分析人士的话称，中国政府将重心转向维护市场稳定，这会为中国股市的悲观情绪“松绑”提供催化剂；一连串的干预行动表明，中国股市的严重低迷表现可能已接近政府的容忍限度。7日，中国证监会迎来主要领导调整，金融系统资深人士吴清成为新任证监会主席。美国彭博社就此评论称，吴清的任命是“出人意料的举动”，“可能预示着中国高层将采取更强有力的措施来结束股市的下跌”。
时隔两个月，沪深两市成交额突破万亿元
三大股指是各界观察中国股市的主要风向标。继前一天的大幅上涨后，三大股指7日再次集体收涨，沪指报收2829.7点，涨幅1.44%，成交额4959亿元；深成指报收8708.24点，涨幅2.93%，成交额5260亿元；创业板指报收1707.02点，涨幅2.37%。自2023年11月21日以来，7日沪深两市成交额重回万亿规模。
7日，中国证监会主要领导调整的消息引发关注。中共中央决定，任命吴清同志为中国证券监督管理委员会党委书记，免去易会满同志的中国证券监督管理委员会党委书记职务。国务院决定，任命吴清同志为中国证券监督管理委员会主席，免去易会满同志的中国证券监督管理委员会主席职务。英国《金融时报》称，近几个月来，监管机构面临着恢复对中国股市信心的压力。彭博社称，吴清是中国金融业资深人士，曾因在2000年代中期严厉打击交易员的违法行为赢得赞誉，他的任命“可能预示着中国高层将采取更强有力的措施来结束股市的下跌”。
“中国政府出手救市，股市创多年来最佳单日表现。”《华尔街日报》称，中国股市6日创下多年来最佳单日表现。中国政府暗示有意支撑股市，规模达1.24万亿美元的主权财富基金中投公司旗下子公司中央汇金发布公告，将持续加大增持ETF规模和力度。证监会称，将继续协调引导公募基金、私募基金、证券公司、社保基金、保险机构、年金基金等各类机构投资者更大力度入市。在一份“答记者问”中，证监会还建议中国上市公司充分运用好现有“工具箱”来提振投资者信心，维护市场稳定，包括股份回购、大股东增持和常态化分红等市场工具。分析人士表示，综合来看，这一系列消息表明，中国政府对中国股市现状有了新的紧迫感。
美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）网站7日报道称，资产管理平台Clocktower集团合伙人兼首席策略师马尔科·帕皮克表示，过去12个月他一直看空中国股市，上周还告诉投资者“不要抄底”。但他现在认为，“我们可能已经看到投资者情绪触底”，随着当局发出协调一致的支持努力，未来几个交易日，中国股市可能上涨。他认为，中国政府的关注点不仅仅是稳定股市，而是宏观经济的基本面。
彭博社7日关注到，中国企业正加大股票回购力度。报道称，上个月，中国内地和香港上市公司分别花140亿元人民币和210亿港元回购股份，两者都创下自2021年彭博社开始编制数据以来的最高纪录。瑞士投资管理公司GAM的基金经理科特西说，公司回购和国家队买进是积极的信号。企业比外部投资者更了解自己的业务，他们创纪录地回购股份表明，企业认为自己的业务在股市上被低估了。相关数据显示，近日沪深两市已有几百家公司发布了回购股份相关公告。
“交易活动已飙升至五个月以来的高位”
“中国一些最大上市公司的交易活动已飙升至5个月以来的高位。”英国《金融时报》7日称，据该报对中国数据提供商Wind数据的分析统计，沪深300、中证500和中证1000指数（这些指数包括了中国股市交易活动的大部分）所含股票的日成交额7日升至6990亿元人民币，为2023年8月28日以来的最高水平。
德国《世界金融市场》7日问道：中国股市大幅上涨，这是一个转折点的开始吗？人们对各方进一步共同努力提振股市的希望越来越大。中国监管机构更加积极主动的立场让人想起2015年，当时中国监管机构严厉打击市场投机交易，并指示一些投资者避免出售股票。报道认为，这预示着北京这次将面临一场艰苦的战斗。“从长远来看，改革和政策措施对支撑市场最为重要。总而言之，这关系到宏观经济的复苏和稳定。”
专注于市场研究的美国MarketPlace网站称，上周沪指和深指触及5年来新低，“就像在美国一样，在中国，股市不是经济”。文章称，“尽管中国股市陷入困境，但重要的是不要夸大其情况”。康奈尔大学经济学家埃斯瓦尔·普拉萨德表示，中国股市的困境“不是美国在2008年（经济危机）甚至新冠疫情期间”那种情况。报道称，对于那些想在选举年幸灾乐祸的美国政客，普拉萨德提出了警告。“最终，中国发生的事情可能会对美国产生反弹效应，因为美国不是全球经济中的孤岛”，他说，许多中国大公司在美国证券交易所上市，也可能在美国公民的401（k）中（指退休金账户）。
关键是信心
《联合早报》7日发表评论文章认为，中国股市陷入今天的局面，很大程度上是信心问题。英国《每日星报》称，经济增长的复苏不是自动的，中国必须应对一些挑战。在短期内，恢复信心可能比扩大信贷更重要。
《经济学人》6日称，中国经济很大程度上取决于一个增长来源：提高14亿多人口的消费。中国官员曾在多个场合强调提振消费的重要性。2月2日，国际货币基金组织发布了一份关于中国经济前景的新报告，其中61次提到“消费”，这是有道理的。
上述报道称，中国的消费者往往更喜欢储蓄，而不是消费。在消费占国内生产总值（GDP）百分比这一指标上，中国在全球排名靠后。由此，中国对世界经济的贡献存在巨大的不平衡。经济学家迈克尔·佩蒂斯称，中国占全球投资的32%，经济总量的18%，但仅占消费的13%。即使在新兴经济体中，中国也很突出，与其他国家形成鲜明对比。好消息是，随着新冠疫情的限制结束，人们可以重返餐馆、商店和旅行，2023年已经出现了一些复苏。据中国国家统计局的数据，2023年最终消费支出对经济增长贡献率为82.5%，这是1999年以来的最高水平。
“矛盾的信息”，北美货运市场信息网站FreightWaves称，这些天来自中国的宏观经济和贸易数据似乎存在矛盾：尽管一些数据不佳，但中国向美国发送的海运集装箱货运量达到自2022年5月以来的最高水平。这部分是因为中国农历新年临近，工厂在工人放假前将大量货物运往港口。但今年的峰值远高于2023年的农历新年，且全年货运量一直在增加。▲
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